The "Diet Wildcats" will take on the "knock-off Wildcats" in the first semi-final. Brian Goorjian's defensive unit Illawara will be tasked with the daunting job of taking down the ever consistent playoff juggernaut that is the Perth Wildcats.
Except this series will not be a regular Wildcats sort of series, one key ingredient to Perth's success won't be available, Bryce Cotton.
Plenty has been said about Bryce Cotton's absence and the ramifications that will follow for Trevor Gleesons men.
The interesting story will be where does all that usage go? The defence will undoubtedly figure itself out, Norton will go to Harvey and surely do a respectable job, the presumption being they force Harvey right and keep him away from the deadly step back jumper and even deadlier free throw line floater.
With Cotton off the court this means they can insert someone else, whether that be an offensive changeup or a defensive one.
This also means more Steindl + Blanchfield lineups, bringing floor spacing and length onto the court, also bringing the chance to play a style of the flex offense that might just work with the Cotton-less Wildcats.
An adjustment of the flex offense that was used heavily in the early 2000s and late 90s was the duck-in continuity, requiring two cutting bigs and a pair of shooters flashing to the corners and above the break, this type of flex offense was excellent when you could play two bigs and wanted to flex your strength inside the paint. (pun not intended)
Obviously Perth have an excellent offense, changing that would be disastrous, however adding a more prominent "duck-in" principal more often then they already do (they do plenty), could find more opportunity for the still adjusting Will Magnay to simply get in the paint and score the ball, this will also further highlight the exceptional skill of the incredible John Mooney.
per Jordan McCallum's NBL play types Perth rank first for frequency on cuts, they also rank first for points per possession (ppp) for those plays, they average 1.23ppp on 9.2 of these plays per game, in a playoff setting and no Cotton that frequency could certainly jump.
Next question is who gives up the most points to cuts in the NBL? The Illawara Hawks...
The Wildcats are in the box seat to rally and make the finals, Trevor Gleeson is an excellent coach and will likely throw everything at this series to make a run at the championship.
This Perth team has the potential to continue their high pressure defense and as stated, have a possible theory to get points on the board against what will surely be a Goorjian coaching masterclass with the Illawara defense.
Perth to win 2-0
With the exception of Tyler Harvey dropping a ridiculous amount of points and stealing a game.
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