Skip to main content

12 Straight for Melbourne or will the Wildcats shake the fatigue? Statistical breakdown of The Wildcats last month.


In the midst of season fatigue, crowd size negativity and blowout victories we finally are gifted with a 1 plays 2 matchup.

The Perth Wildcats will travel down to take on Melbourne United at John Cain Arena.
 
Firstly, there is absolutely no guarantee both these teams will come out at 100%, a common theme of the last few weeks has seen multiple players and teams "going through the motions" on both ends. 

However, Bryce Cotton loves Melbourne and Melbourne haven't proven anything against the reigning champs.

Cotton was hand crafted in a basketball lab for these sorts of moments, to come out and pour points onto the number one team in the country. 

This game will serve as an excellent primer to get you through this difficult stretch of the season leading into what is sure to be an electric 2021 finals. 

If you wanted an indication that this game means something to Melbourne, look no further.

Jock Landale looks poised to return to the team after a brief stint on the sidelines. Not only is this a massive boost to their starting group, it also means Jo Lual-Acuil can move back to bench where he has been so dominant all season, he will take the confidence of some excellent starting performances with him.

It's crazy to think the last time these guys matched up was February 20th. 

Bryce Cotton scored 29, Scotty Hopson missed what felt like a handful of threes down the stretch and Perth narrowly walked out of John Cain Arena with the win. 

However this game doesn't tell the entire story, Melbourne were without Chris Goulding while Scotty Hopson was still finding his feet. 

With Goulding back and Scotty Hopson well and truly looking reinvigorated the Wildcats might have a slightly bigger obstacle in their way. 

Some interesting statistics I've dug up thanks to Spatial Jam

Since April 1st (The last Month)

Bryce Cotton
- 16 Player Efficiency Rating (-10 below his season PER)
- 100 offensive rating (-20 below his season average)
- 21% on 8 three point shots per game
- Getting to the free throw line 7% less

Chris Goulding
- 67% of his shots are coming from deep
- 22 Player Efficiency Rating
- 57% Effective Field Goal Percentage
- 40% on 8 three point shots per game

Now, specifically selecting statistics relatively out of context can definitely be a trap, however I believe regardless of context one thing is clear. 

Bryce Cotton is/was and might remain to be fatigued. Although can you really blame him for his numbers taking a dive over the last month? 

Obviously John Mooney is still having an excellent season, he has been an excellent second fiddle to the Cotton show so far. 

Todd Blanchfield? Can't fault him, he's doing everything required of him at the Wildcats, I can even look past those stupid one handed floaters. 


But Clint Steindl on the other hand.

With Cotton fatigued, Blanchfield doing his best and Mooney carrying the rest of the load the Wildcats still need one more scorer to really make all this work, especially if they are to take down Melbourne tonight and in the future.

Above you'll see Steindl's shooting splits for NBL21. Don't look too long you might just burn your eyes. 

19 of 81 from deep. 

I'm not going to talk about Steindl, it might just be too frustrating. 

Despite the digression into my worries about the Perth Wildcats they are still an excellent team. As defense continually remains the key component of being successful in the NBL they won't be easy beats for Melbourne. 

However another trip down to Melbourne, playing against a fit and firing Goulding, a rested and returning Landale and a confident shot making Hopson, I believe United will prove to strong for this Wildcats team. 

Always risky making a confident bet on any team, let alone a team taking on NBL royalty Bryce Cotton and the defending champions Perth. 

However my worries from my Melbourne United season preview still stands.

Can Melbourne bring enough passing and playmaking to the table to consistently take on high pressure defences? 

Melbourne are still the pick, but if Perth come too Melbourne motivated and ready to force turnovers and get up and down the court, the Wildcats could most certainly prove this pick wrong. 

Thank you for reading. 
As always follow my work on twitter or follow this blog, links below:


Photos courtesy of Getty, NBL.com and Twitter.




Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Disappointing beginning for two of the league's most promising teams.

Three rounds in to NBL21 and there are already a few teams licking their wounds. The Cairns Taipans and the New Zealand Breakers are two of these teams. They will be both be undergoing a prompt and rapid root-cause analysis of their individual short comings.   This will be heavily focused on getting their squads back on track. The Cairns Taipans on again/off again defence will be front and centre, for New Zealand maybe a sneaky conditioning session for Lamar Patterson is in order? Why are these two teams in particular struggling?  New Zealand Breakers Record 0-2 Ranked 9th on Offense Ranked 5th on Defence per SpatialJam Favourites, Stacked, Unstoppable... Just a few words that were used to describe the Breakers as they were on a tangent of big player signings this last off season. Oh how a few games can change things... It's going to be a tough season for the Breakers as they have been presented with a less than beneficial schedule. Essentially they've be...

What to expect from the new look Adelaide 36ers.

Young, exciting and challenging would be my best description of what I expect from this squad. A team "lead" by NBA draft hopeful Josh Giddey with a sprinkle of veteran guidance from Ex-NBA point guard Donald Sloan and EuroLeague journeyman Tony Crocker.  What an interesting team they've put together down in South Australia as we see a nice blend of talented distributers mixed in with some handy scorers and versatile offensive bigs.  Let's start by talking about this teams offensive playmaking which will be a strength this season no doubt.  Donald Sloan and Josh Giddey. If you indulge in any Adelaide 36ers content throughout this season there is a strong chance it'll be focused around these two.  Watching Giddey early on, then watching Sloan join in the other night has given me optimism that the 6ers aren't going to be the easy beats a lot of people thought they might be. These guys have NBA levels skills and IQs, hence why one had a "semi dec...

NBAxNBL How our "Aussie developed talent" will fare in 2021

What a weird and wonderful treat the NBA draft has turned out to be. On one hand we got to see an abundance of action and player movement. On the other hand, possibly the most important,  we got to see a group of "Australian developed players" realise their NBA dreams. They heard  their names called out in the spotlight. What a magical, life altering moment for these young guys.  Nowopinions may differ in terms of how much Australia and the NBL actually helped some of these talented individuals, some will say Lamelo was destined to show off his elite skills and go in the early lottery regardless of where he played while I have heard plenty of respected opinion makers bang the "RJ Hampton ruined his stock in the NBL" drum.   Lamelo Ball Round 1 Pick 3 Charlotte Hornets No matter your view on such topics the fact is Lamelo Ball has just been taken with the third pick in the NBA draft after a season in Australia's premier basketball league, the NBL.  Ok...