Skip to main content

12 Straight for Melbourne or will the Wildcats shake the fatigue? Statistical breakdown of The Wildcats last month.


In the midst of season fatigue, crowd size negativity and blowout victories we finally are gifted with a 1 plays 2 matchup.

The Perth Wildcats will travel down to take on Melbourne United at John Cain Arena.
 
Firstly, there is absolutely no guarantee both these teams will come out at 100%, a common theme of the last few weeks has seen multiple players and teams "going through the motions" on both ends. 

However, Bryce Cotton loves Melbourne and Melbourne haven't proven anything against the reigning champs.

Cotton was hand crafted in a basketball lab for these sorts of moments, to come out and pour points onto the number one team in the country. 

This game will serve as an excellent primer to get you through this difficult stretch of the season leading into what is sure to be an electric 2021 finals. 

If you wanted an indication that this game means something to Melbourne, look no further.

Jock Landale looks poised to return to the team after a brief stint on the sidelines. Not only is this a massive boost to their starting group, it also means Jo Lual-Acuil can move back to bench where he has been so dominant all season, he will take the confidence of some excellent starting performances with him.

It's crazy to think the last time these guys matched up was February 20th. 

Bryce Cotton scored 29, Scotty Hopson missed what felt like a handful of threes down the stretch and Perth narrowly walked out of John Cain Arena with the win. 

However this game doesn't tell the entire story, Melbourne were without Chris Goulding while Scotty Hopson was still finding his feet. 

With Goulding back and Scotty Hopson well and truly looking reinvigorated the Wildcats might have a slightly bigger obstacle in their way. 

Some interesting statistics I've dug up thanks to Spatial Jam

Since April 1st (The last Month)

Bryce Cotton
- 16 Player Efficiency Rating (-10 below his season PER)
- 100 offensive rating (-20 below his season average)
- 21% on 8 three point shots per game
- Getting to the free throw line 7% less

Chris Goulding
- 67% of his shots are coming from deep
- 22 Player Efficiency Rating
- 57% Effective Field Goal Percentage
- 40% on 8 three point shots per game

Now, specifically selecting statistics relatively out of context can definitely be a trap, however I believe regardless of context one thing is clear. 

Bryce Cotton is/was and might remain to be fatigued. Although can you really blame him for his numbers taking a dive over the last month? 

Obviously John Mooney is still having an excellent season, he has been an excellent second fiddle to the Cotton show so far. 

Todd Blanchfield? Can't fault him, he's doing everything required of him at the Wildcats, I can even look past those stupid one handed floaters. 


But Clint Steindl on the other hand.

With Cotton fatigued, Blanchfield doing his best and Mooney carrying the rest of the load the Wildcats still need one more scorer to really make all this work, especially if they are to take down Melbourne tonight and in the future.

Above you'll see Steindl's shooting splits for NBL21. Don't look too long you might just burn your eyes. 

19 of 81 from deep. 

I'm not going to talk about Steindl, it might just be too frustrating. 

Despite the digression into my worries about the Perth Wildcats they are still an excellent team. As defense continually remains the key component of being successful in the NBL they won't be easy beats for Melbourne. 

However another trip down to Melbourne, playing against a fit and firing Goulding, a rested and returning Landale and a confident shot making Hopson, I believe United will prove to strong for this Wildcats team. 

Always risky making a confident bet on any team, let alone a team taking on NBL royalty Bryce Cotton and the defending champions Perth. 

However my worries from my Melbourne United season preview still stands.

Can Melbourne bring enough passing and playmaking to the table to consistently take on high pressure defences? 

Melbourne are still the pick, but if Perth come too Melbourne motivated and ready to force turnovers and get up and down the court, the Wildcats could most certainly prove this pick wrong. 

Thank you for reading. 
As always follow my work on twitter or follow this blog, links below:


Photos courtesy of Getty, NBL.com and Twitter.




Labels

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Giddey, Froling and Sobey: My thoughts on Game 1 and what to expect from Game 2.

Friday night saw the return of live basketball and the NBL in a match where we were blessed with an abundance of young Australian talent headlined by 2021 NBA draft prospect Josh Giddey. Giddey who currently projects as an on-ball playmaking wing had an excellent start to his unofficial NBL career finishing with 13 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists.  Giddey however wasn't the only young, up and coming Australian to impress fans and coaches as the likes of Keanu Pinder, Tyrrell Harrison and Tanner Krebs all were out putting their best foot forward as coaches start to determine what their rotations are going to look like come the start of the season.  In terms of game 1 and what to expect from game 2 there will certainly be a stronger emphasis from Brisbane on offensive execution and defensive consistency.  Brisbane throughout parts of the game looked clunky and ill-disciplined on offense often relying on Anthony Drmic to create shots for himself and others on ha...
Post a Comment
Read more

My off-season thoughts on the Cairns Taipans

Last year the Cairns Taipans suprised a lot of people and laid down the blueprint for the non-powerhouse organisations pathway to success. Three imports.  It's well known to be successful in the NBL you have to hit on all your import spots. This is something that of course is easier said then done.  What made last season so outstanding was Cairns ability to be able to go out and legitimately create the identity of their team through excellent scouting and a brilliant approach to bringing these guys into the NBL, which again, not a simple feat.  However, all of this praise essentially means nothing as we move into the ever changing landscape that is 2020/21. Three imports is no longer an option, DJ Newbill isn't returning to the snake pit and Cairns don't have the same local talent as Sydney, Perth or Melbourne, and for good reason, those designations are breeding grounds for great Australian talent. Click here: Mojave  King Highlights With a n...
Post a Comment
Read more

Couch Take: NBL21 Opening Day Clash ADE vs MELB

Melbourne United have officially begun their journey towards the NBL21 Championship.  With a strong win over an interestingly constructed Adelaide 36ers squad.  Melbourne won the game 89-65 after blowing Adelaide out in the second half, however that implies that Adelaide had kept up with them in the first two quarters, which scoreboard wise is technically correct, but in terms of rhythem and ability to get into what they want to do, Adelaide were way behind. The First Quarter To start the game it was instantly noticeable that Melbourne United had been training together and had built a lot more cohesion then their South Australian opponents.  The Melbourne starters got straight into their flow offense and appeared to be happy letting plays develop and making the right reads. On defence is was much the same, not trying to hard to early, but slowly building into a consistent and flowing rhythem.  Adelaide on the other hand looked quite rusty. Slo...
Post a Comment
Read more