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12 Straight for Melbourne or will the Wildcats shake the fatigue? Statistical breakdown of The Wildcats last month.


In the midst of season fatigue, crowd size negativity and blowout victories we finally are gifted with a 1 plays 2 matchup.

The Perth Wildcats will travel down to take on Melbourne United at John Cain Arena.
 
Firstly, there is absolutely no guarantee both these teams will come out at 100%, a common theme of the last few weeks has seen multiple players and teams "going through the motions" on both ends. 

However, Bryce Cotton loves Melbourne and Melbourne haven't proven anything against the reigning champs.

Cotton was hand crafted in a basketball lab for these sorts of moments, to come out and pour points onto the number one team in the country. 

This game will serve as an excellent primer to get you through this difficult stretch of the season leading into what is sure to be an electric 2021 finals. 

If you wanted an indication that this game means something to Melbourne, look no further.

Jock Landale looks poised to return to the team after a brief stint on the sidelines. Not only is this a massive boost to their starting group, it also means Jo Lual-Acuil can move back to bench where he has been so dominant all season, he will take the confidence of some excellent starting performances with him.

It's crazy to think the last time these guys matched up was February 20th. 

Bryce Cotton scored 29, Scotty Hopson missed what felt like a handful of threes down the stretch and Perth narrowly walked out of John Cain Arena with the win. 

However this game doesn't tell the entire story, Melbourne were without Chris Goulding while Scotty Hopson was still finding his feet. 

With Goulding back and Scotty Hopson well and truly looking reinvigorated the Wildcats might have a slightly bigger obstacle in their way. 

Some interesting statistics I've dug up thanks to Spatial Jam

Since April 1st (The last Month)

Bryce Cotton
- 16 Player Efficiency Rating (-10 below his season PER)
- 100 offensive rating (-20 below his season average)
- 21% on 8 three point shots per game
- Getting to the free throw line 7% less

Chris Goulding
- 67% of his shots are coming from deep
- 22 Player Efficiency Rating
- 57% Effective Field Goal Percentage
- 40% on 8 three point shots per game

Now, specifically selecting statistics relatively out of context can definitely be a trap, however I believe regardless of context one thing is clear. 

Bryce Cotton is/was and might remain to be fatigued. Although can you really blame him for his numbers taking a dive over the last month? 

Obviously John Mooney is still having an excellent season, he has been an excellent second fiddle to the Cotton show so far. 

Todd Blanchfield? Can't fault him, he's doing everything required of him at the Wildcats, I can even look past those stupid one handed floaters. 


But Clint Steindl on the other hand.

With Cotton fatigued, Blanchfield doing his best and Mooney carrying the rest of the load the Wildcats still need one more scorer to really make all this work, especially if they are to take down Melbourne tonight and in the future.

Above you'll see Steindl's shooting splits for NBL21. Don't look too long you might just burn your eyes. 

19 of 81 from deep. 

I'm not going to talk about Steindl, it might just be too frustrating. 

Despite the digression into my worries about the Perth Wildcats they are still an excellent team. As defense continually remains the key component of being successful in the NBL they won't be easy beats for Melbourne. 

However another trip down to Melbourne, playing against a fit and firing Goulding, a rested and returning Landale and a confident shot making Hopson, I believe United will prove to strong for this Wildcats team. 

Always risky making a confident bet on any team, let alone a team taking on NBL royalty Bryce Cotton and the defending champions Perth. 

However my worries from my Melbourne United season preview still stands.

Can Melbourne bring enough passing and playmaking to the table to consistently take on high pressure defences? 

Melbourne are still the pick, but if Perth come too Melbourne motivated and ready to force turnovers and get up and down the court, the Wildcats could most certainly prove this pick wrong. 

Thank you for reading. 
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Photos courtesy of Getty, NBL.com and Twitter.




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