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A bigger role for Mitch McCarron?

This off-season is surely about to heat up as the NBA free agency moves into the spotlight which could mean big waves hitting the NBL import market. Melbourne United have yet to fill their import spots which leaves the theory of their offence currently unknown. 

What we do know about this United squad is that Mitch McCarron will be playing a majority of his minutes at the point guard position, most likely beside Chris Goulding in the starting lineup. 

This leaves me with some burning questions.

Can McCarron efficiently run an offence? 

Does McCarron have the ball distribution skills required to maximize an offence with an off ball scoring threat like Chris Goulding? 

Let's start with the lowest hanging fruit. 
What is Mitch McCarron as a player? 
McCarron being a relatively household name amung NBL circles has certain amount of gravity in this question already, Mitch can score the ball, and he can score the ball well.

 In a touch over 60 plays in the pick and roll this year he scored 1.01 points per possession, that number is superior to the likes of Emmett Naar, Chris Goulding and even Lamelo Ball and slightly below players such as Jason Cadee, DJ Newbill and Kyle Adnam, for some sort of context, players like Lamelo Ball and Emmett Naar are probably expected to be lower in this filter as they are pass first sort of players while Adnam, Newbill and Cadee are definitely looking to attack in these possessions. 

So what does this tell us exactly? Well let's keep it simple, Mitch McCarron is a strong scorer and has multiple ways of getting his points, a strong pick and roll game is built on an ability to score the ball on three levels while also being able to distribute effectively. 




Distributing Effectively, let's stop on this for a second and jump to our second question, can McCarron make the right passes at the right times? And further more can he create passing lanes while having the recognition to utilise them? 

This is probably the toughest question and an answer i'm sure Melbourne United are sweating on every day. The NBL is a guard dominant league, to be successful you have to have a player who fits the mold of being the engine for the offense. You need not look far for examples of this theory, Bryce Cotton, Jerome Randle, Casper Ware, John Roberson, Scott Machado and many, many more, it's a simple equation that works, a skilled playmaking guard will give you a strong Offense. 

So we've determined that McCarron has the capabilities and skillset to score the ball for the offense at an above average level, but his passing is something that has been questioned before. McCarron averaged 3.4 assists per game last season with a 14% assist percentage to go along with an 11% turnover percentage. Put these numbers next to his 11% usage and match that to the eye test, you see a player who makes the required passes and scores when called upon. 

So he has a good base, he makes good reads but doesn't search for passing lanes, he scores at three levels but doesn't push past his capabilities. 

All in all McCarron has a high floor and a median outcome will leave him as an above average player in the league, but if this Melbourne United team is going to contend for the championship we need to see where that ceiling is and he needs to reach atleast a 75th percentile of whatever that ceiling may be. 

I'm excited to revisit this discussion when we see exactly how Mitch McCarron copes with the added responsibility that comes with initiating the offence. 

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The Play-type statistics can be found at https://jordanmcnbl.com/author/jordanmcnbl/ Jordan does great work and I highly recommend visiting his site. 
All other statistics were found at https://spatialjam.com/
Spatial Jam have the gold standard of NBL statistics and are an excellent resource for anyone looking to increase their Australian basketball knowledge


Thankyou for Reading
#NBL21






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